Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
